projects - meaning that those African countries could be even better positioned in 2050 than currently expected.īut without the right policies, a huge working-age population can backfire rather than lead to economic growth. Many of these demographic changes are already baked in: Most people who will be alive in 2050 have already been born.īut predictions always involve uncertainty, and there is evidence that sub-Saharan African countries’ fertility rates are dropping even faster than the U.N. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say.Ĭountries shown are those projected to have a population of 1 million or more by 2050, according to U.N. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. Those countries are already aging off the list. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth. This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations.

And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say. In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.Īs a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted - like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies - will need overhauls to be sustainable. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.īut what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning.

The world’s demographics have already been transformed. In old populations, at least a quarter of the population is 65 or older. World Population Prospects 2022 Young populations are those in which at least a quarter of the population is under age 15.

Demographic shift